‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's Kitchen Fuel Supplies.
The shockwaves of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's households.
As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy transports through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of cooking gas are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases shut down altogether.
Social media is awash with video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Restaurant kitchens appear the worst hit: the most severe shortage is in restaurant kitchens.
"The state of affairs is alarming. Kitchen fuel simply is unavailable," says a official of the an industry group.
Most restaurants run either on commercial LPG cylinders or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are turning to solid fuels and electric cookers to keep food preparation going."
Regional Impact
In Mumbai, media reports say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already completely or partially closed as commercial LPG supplies tighten. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some eateries say their fuel reserves have shrunk with little backup. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no food items - it is truly dismal. Businesses are going to suffer," says a business operator in Bengaluru.
Restaurant operators are rushing to adjust. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that closures are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a dynamic scenario."
Retailers observe a increase in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are facing stockouts.
Government Stance
Yet, the authorities states there is no shortage.
India has more than 300 million household consumers and spokespersons say cylinders are being redirected to households as tensions from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.
Roughly six out of ten of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about nine out of ten of those imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now largely blocked by the war.
The relevant department says that it directed refineries to boost LPG output for domestic use, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Business-grade fuel is being allocated for critical services such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".
"A degree of anxious stocking and hoarding has been triggered by false reports. The regular refill period for household cylinders remains about 60 hours," says a ministry representative.
Spreading Anxiety
Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of scooters outside a gas outlet. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.
According to reports from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be exaggerated.
India imports the overwhelming majority of its oil. Around a significant portion of its petroleum shipments - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Middle Eastern nations.
Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly offset by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a industry commentator.
Based on maritime intelligence and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.
"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.
Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness
The real vulnerability is cooking gas, commentators observe.
India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.
Refineries can tweak operations to extract a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only raise domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.
In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be somewhat alleviated through alternative sourcing. Processed petroleum stocks remains fairly adequate. Kitchen fuel stocks is the key factor to watch in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.
An industry representative claims exploitative practices.
"Retailers are misusing the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."
For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.
